Iacob, Andreea Teodora (2024), Phasing the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania. Analysis based on social distancing measures, Cunoașterea Științifică, 3:4, https://www.cunoasterea.ro/phasing-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-romania/

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania, structured into distinct phases based on the evolution of social distancing measures and the introduction of the vaccine. The study aims to provide a clear framework for understanding how Romania responded to the pandemic, from the initial implementation of strict lockdowns to the gradual relaxation of restrictions following vaccine distribution.

The paper identifies key stages of the pandemic: the Impulse Stage, characterized by strict social distancing and mobility restrictions; the Stabilization Stage, marked by adaptation to new societal norms and the initial rollout of vaccines; and the Recovery Stage, where widespread vaccination enabled a cautious return to normalcy. Each phase is analyzed in terms of the impact of public health policies, the timing of interventions, and the influence of vaccination on societal behavior.

By examining the interplay between social distancing measures and vaccine distribution, this paper provides insights into how Romania navigated the complexities of pandemic management, offering valuable lessons for future health crises.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, Romania, analysis, social distancing, measures

Etapizarea pandemiei de COVID-19 în România. Analiza bazată pe măsurile de distanțare sociala

Rezumat

Această lucrare prezintă o analiză a pandemiei de COVID-19 din România, structurată în faze distincte pe baza evoluției măsurilor de distanțare socială și a introducerii vaccinului. Studiul își propune să ofere un cadru clar pentru înțelegerea modului în care România a răspuns la pandemie, de la implementarea inițială a blocajelor stricte până la relaxarea treptată a restricțiilor după distribuirea vaccinului.

Lucrarea identifică etapele cheie ale pandemiei: etapa de impuls, caracterizată prin distanțare socială strictă și restricții de mobilitate; etapa de stabilizare, marcată de adaptarea la noile norme societale și de lansarea inițială a vaccinurilor; și etapa de recuperare, în care vaccinarea pe scară largă a permis o revenire prudentă la normalitate. Fiecare fază este analizată în ceea ce privește impactul politicilor de sănătate publică, momentul intervențiilor și influența vaccinării asupra comportamentului societății.

Examinând interacțiunea dintre măsurile de distanțare socială și distribuția vaccinurilor, această lucrare oferă perspective asupra modului în care România a navigat în complexitățile managementului pandemiei, oferind lecții valoroase pentru viitoarele crize de sănătate.

Cuvinte cheie: COVID-19, pandemie, România, analiză, distanțare socială, măsuri

CUNOAȘTEREA ȘTIINȚIFICĂ, Volumul 3, Numărul 4, Decembrie 2024, pp.
ISSN 2821 – 8086, ISSN – L 2821 – 8086,
URL: https://www.cunoasterea.ro/phasing-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-romania/
© 2024 Andreea Teodora IACOB. Responsabilitatea conținutului, interpretărilor și opiniilor exprimate revine exclusiv autorilor.

Phasing the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania. Analysis Based on Social Distancing Measures

Andreea Teodora IACOB[1]

tia.iacob@gmail.com

[1] Doctorand, Școala Doctorală ECONOMIE I; ASE, București

Introduction

The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed the state of pandemic caused by COVID-19 in March 2020. Many voices argue that the entire context of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the resulting crisis represent the most aggressive shock to the global economy.

The COVID-19 pandemic has constrained, „spent,” and consumed financial capital, health capital, and technical capital, impacting every level of the economy in every country. Nevertheless, it has forced economic agents (in any form) to invest in human capital, both in educational and biological aspects. The effects of these short-term investments in human capital are already visible in the economy and can be reinvested for further medium- and long-term results.

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration and socio-demographic trends in Romania, it is essential to analyze and create a timeline for the evolution of the pandemic, with a focus on factors that directly influence migration and socio-demographic changes. Thus, this chapter will focus on developing a model to define the temporal progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania.

This model has been constructed by identifying key categories related to migration and socio-demographic trends, such as the level of national preventive and corrective measures taken in response to the pandemic, and the progress of the vaccination effort.

Many experts believe that the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting crisis represent the most significant shock to the global economy in modern times.

We can discuss both the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic, from its impact on social systems, economic structures, and political stability, to its effects on national production, the labor market, real estate, and construction sectors, as well as the broader business environment and the various economic markets that sustain a nation’s economy.

Whether economies should reopen or remain restricted, and understanding the potential consequences of either decision, are critical areas for further analysis. These effects can be examined over short-, medium-, and long-term periods, and across various scales of impact. The interplay between these effects is a fertile ground for economic analysis, reflecting the complexity of economic thought.

At the onset of the crisis, consumer behavior was heavily focused on acquiring health-related products and stockpiling basic food supplies. Over time, consumption priorities shifted, though not back to pre-crisis norms—when, for example, Europeans were more focused on personal development, well-being through travel, alternative medicine, and preventive treatments.

Significant changes were also visible in the adaptive and growth strategies of companies in the marketplace from the early stages of the pandemic. Beyond the disappearance of many businesses from active circulation—across all sectors and sizes—those that managed to survive had to develop new resilience and growth strategies, as their target markets had undergone continuous and profound changes.

Similarly, government strategies designed to help businesses adapt and even expand their operations have evolved. The timing and nature of these governmental interventions, whether proactive (ex-ante) or reactive (ex-post), are crucial to the survival of the national economy.

In addition to the economic shifts, social behavior has been dramatically altered. A new understanding of quality of life has emerged, with consumer behavior during certain stages of the pandemic characterized by prudence, centering on social distancing and its implications.

This shift in behavior has led to significant changes in the way employees work, the demands placed on employers, and the tools used for work. Remote working, flexible communication, and the increased use of new digital communication and problem-solving tools have all been encouraged.

The IT industry has carved out a new path, optimizing communication between economic agents—whether between private businesses and the state or among private enterprises.

Identifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration flows. Constructing a model for the temporary definition of the phases of the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of national prevention measures.

In the following section, two distinct categories of factors will be selected to build a model for determining the timeline on which the proposed phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania can be placed. These two categories focus on preventive measures against the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus, specifically in Romania.

Category I: The level of national preventive and corrective measures against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Category II: The development of vaccines (regardless of the supplier).

By analyzing the simultaneous evolution of these two categories of factors, a timeline will be proposed that outlines the four phases of the pandemic in Romania: the Impulse Phase, the Stabilization Phase, the Recovery Phase, and the New Order. The measures considered were those with the greatest social and economic impact.

On March 11, 2020, the National Committee for Special Emergency Situations decided that all schools in Romania would close from March 11 until Sunday, March 22 (initially accounting for 8 days of classes). This closure was later extended for another two weeks, and ultimately, schools remained physically closed until the end of the academic year.

On March 17, 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued Military Ordinance No. 1, published in the Official Gazette on March 18, 2020. Key measures included the closure of restaurants and bars, the prohibition of events with more than 100 participants, even in open spaces, and the suspension of flights between Romania and Spain for 14 days, starting on March 18. Restrictions were also imposed on individuals in isolation, quarantine, or hospitalized due to COVID-19, preventing them from leaving their homes without authorization.

On March 21, 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued Military Ordinance No. 2, published in the Official Gazette on the same day. This ordinance introduced additional measures, including restrictions on free movement outside the home, allowing it only in accordance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines and prohibiting gatherings of more than three people who do not live together. Non-urgent dental services were suspended, and shopping centers were closed, except for businesses selling food, veterinary products, pharmaceuticals, and cleaning services. Foreign nationals and stateless persons were prohibited from entering the country, with some exceptions. Fines were established for those violating curfew or holding weddings with more than eight participants.

On March 24, 2020, Military Ordinance No. 3 was issued, published in the Official Gazette on March 25. This ordinance prohibited movement outside the home, with certain exceptions. It also required all individuals entering Romania to quarantine or self-isolate. Public institutions and businesses were required to ensure that customers maintained a minimum physical distance of 1.5 meters. Flights to and from France and Germany were suspended for 14 days. National security institutions initiated systems for monitoring compliance with quarantine and isolation measures through digital communication tools.

On April 4, 2020, Military Ordinance No. 7 was issued, published in the Official Gazette. Notably, it established the quarantine of the town of Tandarei in Ialomita County, imposed restrictions on freight transport drivers, and suspended flights to and from Austria, Switzerland, the U.S., the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Iran, and Northern Ireland. However, this did not apply to charter flights for seasonal workers from Romania to other countries, provided they had approval from the authorities in both the originating and destination countries.

On April 9, 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued Military Ordinance No. 8, published in the Official Gazette on April 10, 2020. This ordinance extended the suspension of flights to and from Spain for an additional 14 days, starting on April 14. Additionally, in the days leading up to Easter (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), food retailers were allowed to reopen with extended operating hours.

On April 27, 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued Military Ordinance No. 10, published in the Official Gazette in April 2020. Among its key provisions was a restriction on movement for people over 65, allowing them to leave their homes only between 7:00-11:00 and 19:00-22:00, with some exceptions. Several flight suspensions continued, while markets were reopened with strict hygiene measures, after being closed earlier.

On May 13, 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued Military Ordinance No. 12, published in the Official Gazette. This ordinance lifted the quarantine in Suceava and nearby towns, which had been under lockdown for two weeks. It also officially ended the state of emergency.

Later, on September 1, 2020, through Government Decision No. 668/2020, restaurants and indoor cafes were reopened, with strict hygiene rules in place to prevent COVID-19 spread. Some of the previous restrictions on events, recreational activities, and other gatherings were also relaxed.

However, starting on November 9, 2020, according to CNSU Decision No. 52/2020, restrictions began to reappear. Masks became mandatory outdoors, and schools switched to online learning. Students returned to physical classes gradually from February, depending on the infection rate in each area.

On November 12, 2020, the Romanian Government issued Decision No. 967, published in the Official Gazette, banning concerts, cultural events, demonstrations, and other gatherings in both indoor and outdoor spaces, with certain exceptions. Cinemas and performance halls were allowed to operate at 50% or 30% capacity, depending on the local COVID-19 incidence rate. Private events like weddings and baptisms were prohibited, and gatherings of more than six people not from the same family were banned. A nighttime curfew from 23:00 to 05:00 was also enforced, with specific exceptions.

On June 1, 2021, Government Decision No. 531/2021 relaxed some of the previous restrictions, particularly regarding recreational activities. On July 1, 2021, the Ministry of Health issued OUG 68/2021, introducing the EU Digital Certificate, available through a system developed by the Special Telecommunications Service. Some restrictions were still in place, but exceptions were made for those holding the EU Digital Certificate.

On October 6, 2021, Government Decision No. 1090 was issued, published in the Official Gazette on October 7, 2021. The state of alert was extended, and mask-wearing became mandatory again in countries with an incidence rate of over 6 cases per 1,000 inhabitants. Recreational activities were permitted, but only for up to 10 participants, all of whom were required to present a green certificate. The nighttime curfew was maintained between 22:00 and 05:00, even for vaccinated individuals.

On November 8, 2021, Government Decision No. 1183 extended the state of alert for another 30 days, maintaining many of the previously established restrictions, while allowing exceptions for those holding the EU vaccination or immunity certificate.

From March 9, 2022, the Romanian Government officially lifted the state of alert. Major relaxations followed: mask mandates were lifted, there were no more restrictions on access to public spaces, and no limits on business operating hours. Additionally, the COVID certificate was no longer required for entering the country, and quarantine restrictions for travelers were abolished.

With these relaxations in place, by the end of 2022, no new measures were introduced, and the situation remained consistent with the March 9, 2022 guidelines.

To establish a timeline of COVID-19 prevention measures, the most intense and restrictive interventions during key periods were identified. A summary of the most important measures is provided above. Based on these key measures, the following indicators were categorized: Restrictions on free movement outside the home/public and private spaces, Constraints on recreational activities/social events, Restrictions on educational and training activities, Restrictions on commercial activities, National/international travel restrictions.

For each indicator, measures were assigned a weight of 1 or 2 (with 2 indicating a strict restriction and 1 representing a milder restriction). For example, if flights from France, Italy, and Spain were limited or canceled, it was given a weight of 1. However, if all commercial flights from all countries were canceled, except for specific exemptions, it was assigned a weight of 2.

Each measure introduced through Military Ordinances, Government Decisions, or other major public actions with significant impact was evaluated, and the weights of the active measures were aggregated for each category. The resulting data is summarized in the following graph.

Table 1: COVID-19 Public Measures in Romania During the Relevant Period

Source: Own elaboration based on existing public legislative sources available online

Identifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Migration. Developing a Model to Temporarily Define the Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic from the Perspective of Vaccination Progress in Romania.

Notes: The Moderna vaccine has been administered since February 4, 2021; the AstraZeneca vaccine since February 15, 2021; the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been administered as a single dose since May 4, 2021.According to European Council Publications, COVID-19 vaccination began in Europe on December 27, 2020. By August 31, 2021, 70% of the adult population in the European Union had been fully vaccinated. Furthermore, by June 2022, 86% of the EU’s adult population was fullyvaccinated. Source: Own elaboration based on existing public legislative sources available online

Evolution of the number of individuals vaccinated with the complete vaccination scheme in Romania, from December 28, 2020, to March 13, 2022

Source: Own elaboration based on existing public legislative sources available online

Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Measures to Prevent the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

The perspectives on the pandemic’s manifestations—both during and after—are varied and currently seem all valid, sometimes paradoxically. Considering the previously presented information, we can tentatively outline the proposed phases of the COVID-19 pandemic as follows:

Phase I: The Impulse Stage (March 2020 – December 2020)

This phase is primarily marked by the societal acceptance of social distancing, along with restrictions on the movement of people and goods, both domestically and internationally. Government organizations react to each surge in the pandemic, and the population responds, often drastically, to these state measures.

A new, disordered reality emerges with severe measures enacted: states of emergency and alert, mandatory local stay requirements, and limitations on leaving residence unless justified by specific criteria. The state reallocates resources to manage the pandemic and foster cautious behaviors. Psychological, medical, social, and economic pressures lead to abrupt changes in consumer and work behaviors. Vulnerable companies collapse, and unemployment rises, with technical unemployment adding pressure on an already strained economy. Uncertainty prevails, as no one globally has a clear solution or foresight for resolution.

Key terms of this phase illustrate a paradox that constrains the economy: to act cautiously, social distancing must be emphasized, allowing the state to optimally redirect resources toward health sectors while also ensuring the economy remains operational. An economic collapse must be mitigated, leading to substantial capital injections into the economy, which, while risky, aim to keep a failing system „alive.”

Phase II: The Stabilization Stage (January 2021 – June 2021)

This stage is characterized by acceptance of a new, adaptable way of life. Economic policies solidify toward reconfiguration, and the vaccine begins limited distribution. The population becomes increasingly receptive and adaptable, with communication methods becoming more effective, helping people adjust to new lifestyles and working conditions.

New businesses emerge to meet the needs of the new global and economic order (e.g., disposable mask distribution), while others close due to economic fluctuations. This phase is transitional, with a situation that is neither critical nor significantly improved—marked by cautious optimism and minor advancements amidst losses.

Phase III: The Recovery Stage (July 2021 – December 2021)

In this phase, the vaccine is widely available. The population gradually embraces new behaviors. Consumer behavior shifts toward a new global order, with businesses aligning operations with crisis-defined concepts. Government policies direct investments toward emerging needs, emphasizing digitalization, especially within state institutions. Lessons learned from the pandemic begin to stabilize economies within this ongoing chaos.

Phase IV: The New Order (January 2022 – Present)

In contrast to the previous phase, this stage involves fine-tuning scientific advancements across various sectors, including socio-psychological aspects. Communication methods become more accessible to a larger population, including those who were initially resistant (e.g., elderly rural populations). This flexibility results from exposure to restrictions and the necessity to adapt to new survival mechanisms, from mobile technology to remote healthcare.

Digitalization and remote communication tools become increasingly user-friendly. IT developments are adopted more readily, including automation of bureaucratic processes to prevent previous overcrowding and advanced automation in private companies to reduce long-term labor costs. While economies remain troubled, a significant advantage lies in the adaptive character and scientific progress achieved following periods of restriction and global hardship.

The intertwined phenomena of migration and the COVID-19 pandemic are evident, influencing and discouraging each other. Since the pandemic’s onset, migration indicators have been strongly affected, fluctuating yearly and often shifting dramatically from the trends of three years ago. Travel restrictions and the encouragement of remote work have reshaped the current migration landscape, introducing new nuances.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded in distinct phases, each characterized by varying responses from both government and society.

Impulse Stage (March 2020 – December 2020): This initial phase was marked by the immediate implementation of social distancing and travel restrictions. The state responded with emergency measures while the population faced significant disruptions, leading to economic instability and psychological distress.

Stabilization Stage (January 2021 – June 2021): As the vaccine rollout began, society adapted to a new way of life. Economic policies evolved to address the changing landscape, with new businesses emerging to meet demands, although many others continued to struggle.

Recovery Stage (July 2021 – December 2021): With widespread vaccine availability, consumer behavior began to shift positively. The focus turned towards efficient investments and digitalization, stabilizing economies amid ongoing challenges.

New Order (January 2022 – Present): This phase emphasizes fine-tuning scientific advancements and improving communication methods. Digitalization became more accessible, contributing to an adaptable economy despite lingering turbulence.

Throughout these phases, the interconnectedness of migration patterns and the pandemic’s impact on society became evident, illustrating how travel restrictions and remote work trends reshaped the migration landscape. Overall, the responses to the pandemic highlight both the challenges and the adaptive resilience of societies in the face of unprecedented crises.

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